股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中銀航空租賃有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月1日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02588 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 694,010,334 | | 0 | | 694,010,334 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) ...

Core Viewpoint - 中银航空租赁的1H25业绩符合预期，显示出强劲的业绩释放能力和市场需求的增长 [1][3] Financial Performance - 1H25 total revenue reached 1.24 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - Taxed net profit was 342 million USD, a 20% increase compared to core net profit in 1H24 [1] - The interim dividend was set at 0.1476 USD, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 30% [1] Asset Side - The order book expanded significantly, with expected deliveries in 2025 projected to increase by 26% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of 1H25, the fleet size was 834 aircraft, with a 100% utilization rate for owned aircraft [2] - The average age of the fleet was 5.0 years, significantly younger than the global average of 15 years [2] - The company sold 18 owned aircraft and signed 43 new leasing commitments in 1H25 [2] - New aircraft deliveries in 1H25 totaled 24, accounting for 63% of the total expected deliveries for 2024 [2] Revenue Side - Demand in the Asia-Pacific region is leading, with a strong performance in both volume and pricing [3] - The market value of the fleet increased by 15% compared to book value, driving up leasing yields [3] - Net leasing yield rose to 7.5% in 1H25, compared to 7.0% in 1H24 [3] - The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 37.2% of the company's aircraft assets and 42.7% of rental income [3] Expenditure Side - The annualized funding cost remained stable at 4.6%, with the company maintaining the lowest spread in the industry [4] - Financial expenses accounted for 44% of total operating expenses, making them a key factor in profitability [4] Investment Analysis - Profit forecasts have been raised, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 adjusted to 702, 739, and 763 million USD respectively [4] - The company maintains a buy rating based on improved net leasing yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - 中银航空租赁（BOCA）reported a net profit of $342 million for 1H25, a 20% year-on-year increase, aligning with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $337 million [1] - The aviation leasing industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with aircraft manufacturers increasing production capacity, leading to a 12% year-on-year rise in total aircraft deliveries [1] Supply and Demand - Total aircraft deliveries in 1H25 increased by 12%, with Boeing's deliveries rebounding by 53%, compensating for a 7% decline in Airbus deliveries due to engine shortages [2] - The global new aircraft delivery value is expected to reach $100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2019, and is projected to exceed $141 billion by 2027 [2] - IATA forecasts a 5.8% growth in global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) in 2025, supporting airline profitability, which is expected to reach $36 billion, up from $32 billion in 2024 [2] Capital Expenditure and Asset Growth - In the context of supply recovery, the company is actively expanding its fleet and optimizing its asset structure, with 24 aircraft deliveries in 1H25 compared to 18 in 1H24, and capital expenditure reaching $1.9 billion, a 150% year-on-year increase [2] - The company announced its largest aircraft order in March, increasing its total order backlog by over 50% to 351 aircraft, with committed capital expenditure of $20 billion [2] - As of the end of 1H25, the company owned 441 aircraft with an average age of 5 years and maintained a 100% utilization rate, indicating a healthy fleet [2] Profitability Improvement - The rental yield for operating leases increased by 50 basis points to 10.3% in 1H25, while the cost of debt remained stable at 4.6% [3] - The net lease yield (NLY) rose by 50 basis points to 7.5%, primarily due to the sale of older, low-yield aircraft and the introduction of higher-yield new models [3] - The company anticipates that the recovery in upstream capacity will facilitate smoother capital expenditure deployment, with rising rental rates expected to enhance asset yield [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to $710 million, $800 million, and $830 million, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.7%, 1.1%, and 3.2% [3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 85 from HKD 82, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.13x for 2025E [3] - The company's stock is currently trading at 0.96x 2025E PB and offers a 3.9% dividend yield, indicating potential investment value [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a 6% year-over-year increase in revenue to US$1.24 billion for 1H25, while net profit decreased by 26% year-over-year to US$342 million, primarily due to non-recurring write-backs related to two aircrafts in Russia in 1H24. Excluding this impact, core net profit grew by 20% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company delivered 24 aircrafts, a 6-unit increase year-over-year and a 4-unit increase half-over-half, with 19 being operating leased aircrafts, marking a 12-unit increase year-over-year and half-over-half. This resulted in capital expenditures of US$1.9 billion, a 138% year-over-year increase [2] - The net book value of operating leased aircrafts rose by 1% compared to the beginning of 2025, reaching US$18.2 billion, attributed to accelerated aircraft disposals, which increased by 3 units year-over-year to 18 [2] - The lease rate factor increased by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year to 10.3%, contributing to a net operating lease yield increase of 0.5% year-over-year to 7.5% [2] - Other interest and fee income surged by 80% year-over-year, driven by a significant rise in pre-delivery payment financing income due to global aircraft delivery growth [2] Growth Outlook - The company signed its largest aircraft order in history during 1H25, with the orderbook increasing by 132% year-over-year to 351 aircrafts, implying total capital expenditures of approximately US$20 billion. This robust orderbook supports a solid medium-to-long-term growth outlook [3] - The company targets total assets of US$40 billion by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2035 [3] - As of 1H25, the company maintained a 100% aircraft utilization rate, with an average aircraft age of five years and a weighted average remaining lease term of 7.9 years, enhancing visibility in rental income [3] Financing and Valuation - The funding cost remained stable year-over-year at 4.6%, with total debt increasing by 2% year-over-year. The stability in financing costs is attributed to internal cash flow management [4] - A potential 10 basis points decline in financing costs could increase net profit by approximately US$2.5 million, benefiting from easing overseas monetary conditions [4] - The stock is currently trading at 1.0x 2025 estimated price-to-book (P/B) ratio and 0.9x 2026 estimated P/B ratio, with a target price of HK$81.40, suggesting a 13% upside [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in revenue to $1.24 billion for 1H25, while net profit decreased by 26% to $342 million, primarily due to a one-time impact from the return of two Russian aircraft in 1H24. Excluding this impact, core net profit increased by 20%, aligning with expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a capital expenditure of $1.9 billion in 1H25, marking a 138% year-on-year increase, with a total of 24 aircraft delivered, an increase of 6 aircraft year-on-year and 4 aircraft quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The operating lease fleet's net book value increased by 1% year-to-date to $18.2 billion, with a total fleet size of $22.2 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. - The net leasing yield for operating leases rose by 0.5% year-on-year to 7.5%, driven by the introduction of high-rent value new aircraft [2]. Group 2: Growth Prospects - The company signed its largest aircraft order in history during 1H25, increasing the order book by 132 aircraft year-on-year to 351 aircraft, with a total capital expenditure of approximately $20 billion [2]. - The company maintains a 100% utilization rate for its fleet, with an average aircraft age of 5 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years, ensuring a robust and predictable rental income structure [2]. - The current market value of the operating lease fleet is at a 15% premium to its book value, amounting to approximately $2.8 billion, which supports the company's asset stability and potential performance [2]. Group 3: Financing and Cost Structure - The company's funding cost remained stable at 4.6% year-on-year, with total debt increasing by 2%, benefiting from internal cash flow and low-interest debt refinancing [3]. - A potential easing of overseas monetary policy could lead to a reduction in financing costs, with a projected increase in net profit of approximately $2.5 million for every 10 basis points decrease in financing costs [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, currently trading at 1.0x and 0.9x P/B for 25e and 26e, respectively, with a target price of HKD 81.40, indicating a 13% upside potential [3].

中银国际发布研报称，中银航空租赁(02588)上半年总收入及其他收益同比增长5.8%，税后核心净利润 同比增长20%。期内租赁租金收益率达到10.3%，较上年同期9.8%有所提升;净租赁收益率亦升至7.5%， 高于上年上半年的7%。该行指，中银航空租赁商业模式保持稳健，且股息收益率颇具吸引力。截至6月 末，其飞机市场价值较账面净值高出15%。该行将其目标价上调至83.9港元，维持其评级为"买入"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，中银航空租赁(02588)上半年总收入及其他收益同比增长 5.8%，税后核心净利润同比增长20%。期内租赁租金收益率达到10.3%，较上年同期9.8%有所提升;净租 赁收益率亦升至7.5%，高于上年上半年的7%。该行指，中银航空租赁商业模式保持稳健，且股息收益 率颇具吸引力。截至6月末，其飞机市场价值较账面净值高出15%。该行将其目标价上调至83.9港元， 维持其评级为"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Aircraft Leasing Group (02588) achieved a net profit of $342 million in the first half of the year, which is broadly in line with market expectations but slightly exceeds UBS's forecast [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to see a positive market reaction due to a renewed acceleration in revenue growth and stable core profit growth [1] - UBS has slightly raised its earnings forecasts for China Aircraft Leasing for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2%, reflecting the mid-term performance that exceeded expectations [1] - The firm anticipates an 11% growth in core profit for the current year, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2024 to 2027 [1] Price Target and Rating - UBS has increased the target price for the company from HKD 85 to HKD 86.5, while reiterating a "Buy" rating [1]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中银航空租赁(02588)上半年净利润录3.42亿美元，大致符合市场 预期，但略胜于瑞银预测。该行相信，市场或对公司收入增长重新加快和稳固的核心利润增长作出正面 反应。瑞银微升中银航空租赁2025至27年各年盈测1%至2%，主要是反映中期业绩略胜于预期。该行预 计集团今年核心利润增长11%，而2024至27年的年复合增长率预料为16%。该行又将公司目标价由85港 元上调至86.5港元，重申"买入"评级。 ...

非银金融 2025 年 08 月 22 日 中银航空租赁 (02588) 上 市 公 司 ——交付改善、订单簿大幅扩张，业绩同比双位数增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 71.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8974.77 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 76.90/53.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 499.34 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0958 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -15% 35% 85% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...