短期稳定性无法改变日本经济长期结构性困境

Group 1 - The recent Japanese general election results indicate that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party has secured a majority, with the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party winning 36 seats, ensuring short-term stability in economic policy [2] - Japan's GDP growth rate is projected to be approximately 1.1% for the year 2025, reflecting a continued low-growth trend, which suggests that the government may maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth in the short term [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually exit its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2025, but will face challenges in balancing economic stimulation and preventing excessive depreciation of the yen, as core inflation remains weak at around 1.8% [3] Group 2 - Japan is facing long-term structural challenges, including an aging population, declining labor force, and rising social security expenditures, which are constraining the potential growth rate of the economy [3][4] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of weakness, with the PMI for December 2025 recorded at 49.8, indicating contraction, while Japan lags behind the US and China in emerging industries such as AI and biotechnology [3] - Although the LDP's continued governance provides short-term stability and potential policy benefits, it does not address the underlying structural issues that hinder long-term economic growth [4]