21评论｜短期稳定性无法改变日本经济长期结构性困境

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party secured a majority in the recent House of Representatives election, with the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party 36 seats, indicating continued governance stability for Japan [1] - The election was marked by a record short interval of 16 days from the dissolution of the House to the voting, the shortest since World War II, aimed at consolidating power for the ruling party to facilitate policy implementation [1] - Japan's GDP growth is projected at approximately 1.1% for the year 2025, suggesting a sustained low growth trend, with expectations for the government to maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth in the short term [1] Group 2 - Japan is gradually exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2025, but faces challenges in balancing interest rate hikes with economic stability, as core inflation remains weak at around 1.8% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in December 2025, primarily driven by energy and food prices, indicating a reliance on imported inflation [2] - Japan's economy is confronted with long-term structural challenges, including an aging population, declining labor force, and rising social security expenditures, which limit potential growth rates [2] Group 3 - While the LDP's continued governance provides short-term stability and potential policy benefits, long-term structural issues such as labor shortages, aging population, government debt, and sluggish economic growth remain significant constraints [3] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of weakness, with a PMI of 49.8 in December 2025, indicating contraction, while Japan lags behind the US and China in emerging industries like AI and biotechnology [2][3]