美财长贝森特表态沃什任内美联储不会迅速缩表 或需一年敲定调整方案 国库券持仓占比未来五到七年将从不足5%升至55%

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that even with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chair, there will not be a rapid reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, indicating a potential year-long deliberation on adjustments [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Becerra emphasized that the decision on how to adjust the balance sheet will be made independently by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if they adopt a "sufficient reserves" policy, immediate action is unlikely [1]. - The Federal Reserve restarted its balance sheet expansion in December by purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage market liquidity and maintain control over interest rate targets [1]. - Goldman Sachs noted that the market may misinterpret Warsh's actual stance, as the Fed under his leadership is expected to retain options for rate cuts and quantitative easing without significantly reducing the balance sheet [1]. Group 2: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve-Treasury Relationship - Warsh has long advocated for a new version of the 1951 Federal Reserve-Treasury Agreement to redefine the relationship between the two institutions, which could clarify the Fed's balance sheet size in relation to Treasury issuance plans [2]. - If significant changes to the Fed's asset portfolio occur, it could lead to volatility in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and raise concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - Market expectations suggest that if the agreement is implemented, the Fed's holdings may shift from long-term securities to short-term Treasury bills, with predictions indicating that the Fed could become a significant buyer of Treasury bills over the next five to seven years, increasing its holdings from less than 5% to 55% [2].