美联储出现降息信号

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job vacancies dropping to the lowest level in over five years at 6.542 million in December 2025, significantly below market expectations of 7.25 million [1] - The number of layoffs increased slightly to 1.762 million in December 2025 from 1.701 million in November, with the most significant reductions in the transportation, technology, and healthcare sectors [1] - The JOLTS report indicates that while the labor market is cooling, it has not yet "stalled," with hiring increasing by 172,000 to 5.293 million in December, remaining relatively stable compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The overall layoff rate for 2025 was approximately 1.1%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a moderate level of layoffs despite the increase in numbers [2] - The weakening labor market has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with traders adjusting expectations for the first interest rate cut to June or July [2] - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, suggest that one or two rate cuts may be necessary to address the challenges faced by American workers due to rising prices and scarce job opportunities [3]