白银价格预测：银价从120美元高位回调，或为下一轮上涨蓄积动能

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at $120 before retreating to $64, which has raised market concerns. This pullback is attributed to a historical overbought condition during a strong upward trend [1][8]. Group 1: Macro Factors Driving Silver Prices - Increased demand for safe-haven assets has led to a strong performance in silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. diplomatic frictions, prompting investors to shift from risk assets to safe-haven investments [2]. - The combination of rising volatility, loose monetary policy, and tight supply conditions has provided strong support for price increases in silver [7]. Group 2: COMEX Delivery Pressure - A significant factor affecting silver prices is the increasing risk of physical delivery shortages at the COMEX exchange, with registered reserves dropping to 103 million ounces against open interest of 429 million ounces [3]. - The potential for delivery challenges, particularly in March, May, or July, could lead to substantial price fluctuations due to growing demand and limited supply [3]. Group 3: Technical Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the technical outlook for silver remains bullish, with strong support observed in the $50 to $60 range, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [11][14]. - Historical patterns suggest that the recent price movements are part of a normal correction, with expectations for a significant price increase in the latter half of 2026 [14]. Group 4: Cross-Market Trends Supporting Silver - The ratio of silver to CPI has broken a 40-year downtrend, indicating a structural shift in silver's relative value against inflation, which could lead to several years of price increases [15][17]. - The silver-gold ratio has shown a strong rebound from long-term support levels, forming a double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential upward trend for silver prices [19][21]. Group 5: Summary of Current Market Conditions - The recent pullback in silver prices from $120 to $64 reflects a market adjustment after extreme overbought conditions, with macroeconomic factors supporting price increases and rising physical delivery pressures [22]. - The breakthrough in silver's value relative to CPI and gold indicates an unprecedented strong performance, confirming a long-term shift in silver's value [22].