田轩解读2026资本市场攻略：从听故事到看报表，聚焦三大主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, transitioning its operational logic with a focus on profit verification and systemic optimization by 2026, while investors should be cautious of "consensus traps" and prioritize long-term value over short-term trends [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Consensus and Trends - Three core consensus in the current A-share market include the recovery of cyclical sectors, rapid development of new productive forces, and the increasing value of low-valuation high-dividend assets [4]. - Compared to mid-2025, the market's driving logic has shifted from policy expectations to performance verification, with a stronger emphasis on profitability and a more balanced approach to growth and valuation [4][5]. - The low-valuation high-dividend assets are gaining traction due to dual confirmations from policy and valuation support, leading to a noticeable acceleration in recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The consensus around cyclical and new productive forces is supported by fundamentals, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals benefiting from supply-demand restructuring and policy support [5]. - Investors should approach these consensus with caution, focusing on the sustainability of profits and the timing of policy implementation, while being wary of short-term data improvements being misinterpreted as long-term trends [5][6]. - Identifying quality opportunities in low-valuation high-dividend assets and technology breakthroughs in new productive forces can help mitigate the risks associated with consensus traps [8]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - By 2026, the A-share market is expected to exhibit a more sustainable and systematic growth pattern, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as structural changes in the market [9][10]. - The market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven environment to one driven by profit improvement and valuation recovery, with a dual focus on high dividends and technology growth [10][11]. - The core drivers of stable development in 2026 will include technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and consumption expansion, supported by effective policy implementation [11][12]. Group 4: Technology Investment Logic - The investment logic in the technology sector has shifted from focusing on technical feasibility to validating commercial viability and profitability [14]. - Key areas such as AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing are expected to gain market attention as they demonstrate real commercial applications and revenue generation [14][15]. - Investors should assess companies based on their technological barriers, commercialization capabilities, and financial health to identify those with genuine competitive advantages [15][16].