20万亿巨头发逃离信号，究竟看到了什么？

Core Viewpoint - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets under management, signals a significant shift by reducing investments in dollar assets and focusing on Europe and emerging markets, warning that the dollar will continue to weaken if U.S. economic policies remain unchanged [2][3]. Group 1: Amundi's Perspective - Amundi, as a conservative institutional investor, is particularly averse to unquantifiable tail risks and the failure of asset correlation, which are expected to converge dangerously in the U.S. market by 2026 [2]. - The company predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors such as exhausted private demand, diminishing marginal utility of fiscal stimulus, and policy uncertainty [3][4]. Group 2: Changing Dynamics of Dollar Assets - The dual advantages of dollar assets—growth and yield spread—are simultaneously diminishing [4]. - There is a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds; previously, the dollar would rise as a safe haven when equities fell, but now it moves in tandem with risk assets due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5][12]. Group 3: Seven Certainties - Amundi summarizes its macroeconomic judgments into "Seven Certainties," indicating a bearish outlook on dollar assets due to factors like rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and a preference for European credit and emerging market bonds [6][7]. - The strategic pillars include expectations of rising inflation, the need for diversification away from the dollar, and a focus on real and alternative assets as optimal substitutes during periods of currency depreciation [6]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Market Behavior - Over the past 12 months, despite a 14% rise in the S&P 500 due to AI investments, the dollar has depreciated by 10% against a basket of currencies since January 2025, indicating poor performance of U.S. assets when measured in foreign currencies [8][9]. - The U.S. market has experienced a "three-way kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency, reflecting instability akin to emerging markets, which raises concerns about the safety of dollar assets [10][11]. Group 5: The End of the "American Exception" - The underlying structural changes suggest a rewriting of the global financial system's fundamentals, with the assumption that the Federal Reserve can independently control inflation being challenged by rising federal debt and interest payments [12][14]. - The paradox of U.S. trade policy, which aims to reduce imports while expecting foreign entities to continue purchasing U.S. debt, poses a significant risk to the dollar's value and asset valuations [14].