关税传导与"一月效应"或推高美国1月CPI？

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with several investment banks predicting a rebound in core inflation due to the "January effect" and tariff cost transmission [1][3] - The consensus forecast for January's core CPI month-over-month growth is around 0.3%, with Bank of America and Citigroup both predicting a 0.3% increase, while UBS has a more aggressive forecast of 0.38% [1][3][5] - The divergence between goods prices and service sector inflation is a focal point, with rising goods prices driven by tariff cost pass-through, while service prices may show seasonal weakness, potentially signaling easing inflationary pressures [1][3][8] Goods Price Trends - The "January effect" and tariff cost pass-through are expected to drive strong performance in goods prices, with Bank of America forecasting a 0.40% month-over-month increase in core goods prices, while Citigroup anticipates a 0.31% rise [3][5] - Specific categories such as furniture (+0.35%), auto parts (+0.75%), and medical goods (+0.8%) are expected to reflect sellers' actions to pass on tariff costs [3][5] - UBS warns of measurement disruptions due to delayed data collection from November, which may impact January's core goods prices and airline ticket prices by approximately 5 basis points [5] Service Sector Inflation - There is significant divergence in expectations for service sector inflation, which will influence the overall CPI data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [8][10] - Citigroup predicts a 0.39% month-over-month increase in core services prices (excluding housing), which is lower than the typical 0.7% seen in January over the past two years [8] - Bank of America expects a slight cooling in service sector inflation compared to December, primarily due to anticipated declines in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Housing Inflation - Consensus among institutions suggests a moderate increase in housing prices, with Citigroup forecasting a 0.23% rise and UBS predicting a 0.26% increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) [10] - Bank of America notes that service sector inflation may cool slightly compared to December, influenced by the previous month's strong increases in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Policy Implications - Different interpretations exist regarding how the upcoming data will affect Federal Reserve policy, with Bank of America suggesting the current inflation environment is "neither too hot nor too cold" [11] - Citigroup maintains that if inflation data remains below expectations during the typically strong seasonal period at the beginning of the year, it could convince hawkish officials that persistent inflation is no longer a primary concern [11]