国信证券：景气回升难掩财政忧虑 美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧

Group 1 - The current US Treasury market is influenced by data resilience, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a "short-duration core + steepening satellite" allocation strategy focusing on 3-5 year investment-grade bonds for stable coupon income while controlling exposure to bonds over 10 years to avoid long-term interest rate risks from fiscal expansion [1] - The ISM data for January shows a significant improvement in both manufacturing and services sectors, with the manufacturing PMI rising from 47.9 to 52.6, indicating a return to expansion and driven by strong rebounds in new orders and output, although employment indices remain below the threshold [2] - Despite rising risk aversion in the market, demand for US Treasuries is not strong, as evidenced by a mild increase in bond prices and a steepening yield curve, indicating investor concerns over future Treasury supply due to large fiscal deficits outweighing the typical safe-haven demand for long-term bonds [3] Group 2 - The US dollar index has shown a short-term rebound, increasing approximately 1.6% from last week's low, but remains down nearly 10% over the past year, indicating a persistent weak trend [4] - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming CPI and non-farm employment data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4%, although recent ADP data suggests a stagnation in the labor market [5] - The CPI is expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year in January, maintaining the same level as December, with ongoing concerns about service sector inflation and potential further interest rate cuts needed to address labor market weaknesses [5]