瑞银大幅上调铀价预测：未来3年看涨，核心受益公司比肩中国铀业

Core Viewpoint - The global uranium mining industry is entering a favorable cycle driven by policy, industry dynamics, and supply-demand factors, particularly due to the resurgence of nuclear power strategies in multiple countries, which will be a key driver of demand [1] Demand Side: Five Driving Factors - Global uranium demand is expected to continue strong growth, with a projected annual increase of 3% in uranium demand for nuclear reactors from 2026, surpassing the 2% average growth rate from 2020 to 2025 [2] - The growth in demand is driven by five interrelated factors: policy changes, industry dynamics, inventory replenishment, and activation of existing assets, all of which have sustainability [2] - U.S. nuclear power policies are a core engine for global demand growth, with several initiatives aimed at accelerating nuclear power development, leading to significant increases in uranium procurement needs [2] - The expansion of AI computing capacity is creating new demand for nuclear energy, as AI data centers require stable and large-scale energy sources, with nuclear power being a key option [2] - Several countries, including South Korea, are reversing previous decisions to slow or halt nuclear projects, accelerating their nuclear development plans, which opens up long-term demand for uranium [2] Supply Side: Multiple Bottlenecks - The global uranium supply faces rigid bottlenecks, with challenges in new capacity development, rising costs, and project delays, leading to a long-term tight balance between supply and demand [4] - Inflation in key uranium mining regions, such as Canada, is driving up production costs, affecting the economic viability of some low-grade, high-cost uranium projects [5] - Core projects from leading uranium companies are facing various issues, including delays and cost overruns, which hinder the expected release of new capacity [5] - The concentration of uranium supply in a few countries and companies, combined with increasing geopolitical risks, adds to the uncertainty in supply [5] Price Forecast: Significant Price Increase Expected - UBS has significantly raised its short-term and long-term price forecasts for uranium, with short-term prices expected to average $95 per pound from 2026 to 2028, and a projected price of $90 per pound in 2026, up 13% from previous estimates [6] - Long-term prices have also been adjusted, with the actual long-term uranium price for 2025 raised from $77 per pound to $100 per pound, and the nominal long-term price for 2030 increased from $85 per pound to $110 per pound, a 30% increase [6] - Current spot prices for uranium have reached $85 per pound, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, with further upward potential driven by demand [6] Core Company Analysis: Cameco - Cameco is one of the largest uranium mining companies globally, listed on the Canadian exchange, and holds a significant share of the global uranium supply, making it a core supplier for nuclear power companies [7] - The target price for Cameco has been raised by 9% to CAD 152 per share, with a valuation method based on a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 45 times for 2028, aligning with industry conditions and the company's leading position [7] - As an industry leader, Cameco has significant advantages in production scale, cost control, and customer resources, providing resilience against uranium price fluctuations [7]