Moderna to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Moderna is expected to exceed expectations in its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with earnings having previously beaten estimates by 76.28% in the last quarter [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is $661.4 million, with an anticipated loss of $2.60 per share [1] Product Portfolio and Sales Expectations - Moderna has three marketed products: two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia), with overall product sales estimated at $627 million, primarily driven by COVID-19 vaccines [2] - Minimal sales are expected from the RSV vaccine due to strong competition from GSK and Pfizer [3] Pipeline Developments - A key candidate in Moderna's pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy developed in collaboration with Merck, showing promising results in a mid-stage study for high-risk melanoma [4] - Intismeran is currently being evaluated in three pivotal phase III studies, with additional mid-stage studies for other cancer types [5] - Investors are keen on updates regarding the progress of intismeran and other pipeline candidates [5] Combination Vaccine and Regulatory Updates - Moderna's mRNA-1083, a COVID-19/influenza combination vaccine, is on track for FDA resubmission after addressing efficacy data concerns [6] - Positive late-stage data for the standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, supports the efficacy of the combination vaccine [6] Earnings Performance and Stock Movement - Moderna has consistently beaten earnings estimates over the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 31.45% [7] - Over the past year, Moderna's shares have increased by nearly 29%, compared to the industry's 39% growth [8] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna, with an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a more accurate estimate of a loss of $2.52 per share compared to the consensus estimate of a loss of $2.60 [11][12]