美银警告：美股涨势熄火或成债市“黑天鹅”

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Bank of America highlights a potential structural "anemia" in the bond market due to a weakening in the U.S. stock market, which could significantly impact bond market demand [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the recent strength in the U.S. stock market has led to substantial inflows into the bond market, driven by investors rebalancing their portfolios to a "60/40 allocation" (60% stocks and 40% bonds) [2][5]. - It is estimated that for every $10 trillion increase in assets, approximately $37 billion in stocks is sold monthly to purchase an equivalent amount of fixed-income assets, including U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, and mortgage-backed securities [6]. - Since 2021, this rebalancing has accounted for 14% of the U.S. Treasury supply and 22% of the investment-grade bond supply [6]. Group 2: Future Projections - Bank of America strategists predict a significant decline in stock returns by 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to rise only 4.5%, which may lead to a reduction in rebalancing flows into long-duration assets [6]. - Factors such as slowing stock returns, increased capital expenditures, policy uncertainty, and narrowing market breadth suggest that the rebalancing momentum will become more subdued and directionless entering 2026 [6]. Group 3: Implications for Bond Market - Ironically, the depletion of these inflows may enhance the role of bonds in balanced portfolios, as the correlation between stocks and bonds, which has been elevated due to rebalancing flows, may revert to traditional patterns [3][7]. - This shift could increase the diversification benefits and hedging capabilities of long-duration positions within investment portfolios [3][7].