Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Zheng Quan Ri Bao·2026-02-09 16:06Group 1 - The financial data for January is expected to show a significant increase in new RMB loans and social financing compared to December, with estimates suggesting new loans could reach 5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 4 trillion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of about 100 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Analysts predict that the new social financing in January will be around 7 trillion yuan, with bond financing expected to be a major support factor, indicating a stable overall performance in credit and social financing [2] - The growth rates of various loan balances, social financing, and M2 (broad money) are anticipated to slightly decline, yet remain significantly above the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2] Group 2 - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities forecasts a potential reduction in reserve requirement ratios by 25 to 50 basis points and a 10 basis point interest rate cut in 2026, alongside ongoing structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [2]