JPMorgan's nationwide home price forecast hides a SunBelt full of pain. Watch out, Florida and Texas

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is expected to see home prices remain flat in 2026, with a 0% growth forecast, as efforts to improve affordability have minimal impact [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A slight improvement in demand is anticipated to offset an increase in supply, leading to stable home prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's expected reduction in adjustable-rate mortgages may help buyers, despite the 30-year fixed rate remaining above 6% [2] - Homebuilders are likely to continue offering rate buydowns to reduce mortgage costs and clear unsold inventory [2] Price Trends - Home prices showed a 1.9% increase in November year-over-year, a decline from 4.8% growth in October [3] - Regions with significant supply growth during the pandemic, particularly the West Coast and Sun Belt, are experiencing price declines [4] - Texas home prices have decreased by 2.4% and Florida home prices by 5.1% year-over-year, reflecting market weaknesses [5] Market Supply Analysis - JPMorgan estimates a shortfall of approximately 1.2 million homes in the U.S., although this is lower than the consensus view due to recent supply growth [6] - Historical data indicates that housing completions have generally matched household formation over the past 30 years [6] Policy Impact - President Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes is unlikely to significantly affect the market, as they represent only 1%-3% of transactions [8] - The ban could potentially tighten overall supply by limiting the entry of rental homes into the market [9] - Trump's directive for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities may only reduce rates by 10-15 basis points, which is minimal compared to the overall $14.5 trillion mortgage market [10] Builder Strategies - Many homebuilders are already offering mortgage rate buydowns of 100 to 200 basis points below prevailing rates, suggesting that further reductions in market rates may not significantly boost demand [11] - Trump's preference for rising home prices indicates a reluctance to implement measures that would lower them, as he believes that increased home values contribute to wealth [12][13]