东吴证券：北美缺电逻辑持续演绎 重视各类技术路径的相关投资机会

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid in North America [2] Demand Side - The surge in AIDC projects in the U.S. has led to a non-linear increase in electricity demand [2] - By 2025, total supply is expected to meet short-term demand, but long-term projections indicate a decline in stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2] Supply Side - The decline in stable supply is attributed to aging power grids, frequent outages, and the upcoming retirement peak of coal power plants [2] - Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are unstable, while nuclear and geothermal projects have long construction cycles, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2] - Regional electricity shortages are exacerbated by over 50% of data centers being built in Texas, California, and Virginia, leading to significant supply pressure in these areas [2] - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects an average peak gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing high risks [2] - The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [2] Investment Opportunities - Considering cost, construction time, and environmental factors, gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power [2] - Gas turbines can achieve over 60% efficiency, with the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour, and are seeing accelerated installation trends [2] - The global new installation scale of gas turbines is expected to approach the previous cycle's peak by 2025, with leading manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having orders scheduled until 2029 [2] - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid delivery and deployment, with Wärtsilä's new equipment orders increasing by 111% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early stages of commercialization and cost control, making them less viable in the short term [2] - Diesel generators provide quick start-stop advantages and are optimal for backup power, with Cummins reporting a revenue growth of about 20% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2]