花旗：沃什将谨慎推进美联储缩表

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair suggests a gradual approach to reducing the Fed's $6.6 trillion asset portfolio to avoid renewed tensions in the money markets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Reduction Strategy - Citi strategists indicate that any attempt to restart balance sheet reduction (QT) could pressure the $12.6 trillion repurchase market, making the threshold for such actions quite high [1] - The Fed under Walsh may consider various methods to reduce its asset size, including converting maturing long-term Treasury bonds into short-term debt to shorten the weighted average maturity of its holdings [1] - Other options include reducing the current monthly Treasury bill purchase rate of approximately $40 billion or allowing mortgage-backed securities to mature naturally [1] Group 2: Expected Changes in Bond Purchases - Citi anticipates that decision-makers will lower the bond purchase scale to about $20 billion per month starting mid-April and continue this until the end of the year [1]