Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-10 00:01Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in 2026, with uncertainties remaining. China's economy is projected to grow between 4.7% and 5.0% due to supportive macro policies, stabilizing domestic demand, and a balanced supply-demand dynamic, laying a foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][12] - The US economy is returning to its potential growth level, with reduced policy uncertainty as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and expands its balance sheet, leading to improved liquidity [1][12] - The Eurozone's economic fundamentals remain robust, with expectations for continued monetary easing. The UK economy shows resilience, but clear signals for interest rate cuts are still awaited [1][12] Asset Allocation Insights - Precious metals are outperforming other asset classes, with a solid long-term bullish outlook for gold. Silver is supported by financial, industrial, and investment demand, showing an upward trend despite increased volatility [1][2] - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to rise due to AI-driven demand, although rapid short-term price increases pose risks [1][2] - The oil market continues to face an oversupply situation, with prices likely to fluctuate around cost levels [1][2] Stock Market Analysis - The trend of asset value reassessment in China is becoming evident, with a slow bull market established in A-shares. Hong Kong stocks are benefiting from the internationalization of RMB assets and external liquidity easing, suggesting an overweight allocation [1][2] - US stock valuations are high, necessitating a focus on balance between offensive and defensive strategies. European stock markets are becoming more attractive, recommending a standard allocation [1][2] - The Japanese stock market is benefiting from policy dividends and economic recovery, but rising geopolitical risks warrant caution [1][2] Bond Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's multiple interest rate cuts are pushing US Treasury yields lower, suggesting an overweight allocation. Chinese dollar-denominated bonds were previously overweight, with adjustments to be made based on future conditions. European bonds present high allocation value, recommending a standard allocation [2][12] Currency Market Trends - The US dollar is expected to decline, with non-US currencies showing mixed performance. The euro and Malaysian ringgit are performing strongly, while the Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar are in the middle range, with the Canadian dollar appearing weaker [2][12] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with slight depreciation against major non-US currencies [2][12]