全球白银连续五年存在供应缺口 2025年缺口达0.36万吨 多重因素交织影响市场动态

Group 1 - The global silver market has experienced significant volatility, with a persistent supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years. In 2025, global silver supply is projected to be 32,100 tons, while demand is expected to reach 35,700 tons, resulting in a shortfall of 3,600 tons. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of silver demand, exacerbating the supply-demand conflict [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle in September 2025, with three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, and will begin a bond-buying operation in December 2025, injecting substantial liquidity into the market. Concurrently, the U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to rise to around 6%, leading to concerns about the stability of the dollar system, prompting investors to seek precious metals with monetary attributes, thereby increasing interest in silver assets [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties are providing support to the silver market, as rising tensions in various global regions are driving up market risk aversion, resulting in continued capital inflow into precious metal assets and further enhancing silver market volatility [1] Group 2 - Speculative funds are amplifying market fluctuations, with some overseas traders hoarding physical silver, affecting market liquidity. Domestic speculative capital is increasingly participating in the futures market, while ordinary investors are influenced by market sentiment to follow trading trends. Several silver-related fund products have garnered significant attention, prompting fund companies to issue multiple risk warnings to encourage rational market participation [2] - The volatility in the silver market is impacting downstream industries, particularly the photovoltaic sector, which is a major consumer of silver. Fluctuations in silver prices are directly increasing production costs for photovoltaic components. To alleviate cost pressures, some photovoltaic companies are accelerating the research and application of "de-silvering" technologies to explore feasible paths for reducing silver dependency [2]