中信证券：市场可能高估了沃什的鹰派立场

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and changes in expectations regarding the situation in Iran, leading to rapid price increases followed by significant declines [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The market may be overly pessimistic about the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's policies, despite his previous support for balance sheet reduction alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - Current U.S. fiscal debt and budget conditions do not support Warsh's potential quantitative tightening policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts possibly materializing by 2026 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran remains high, suggesting that gold market volatility may persist until the situation stabilizes [1] Group 3: Market Projections - The outlook for gold prices in 2026 remains optimistic, although recent trade relationship disturbances should be monitored [1] - As the gold market continues its bull run, positive sentiment in precious metals may extend to base metals, potentially leading to a bull market in the sector [2] - Improvement in leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. by 2026 could enhance the market performance of base metals [2]