“防风险”会成为利率下行的限制么？

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "risk prevention" is becoming a limiting factor for banks in holding long-term government bonds, with some banks reaching regulatory thresholds for the ratio of economic value change to tier 1 capital (ΔEVE/tier 1 capital) [1][2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - A significant portion of Chinese commercial banks has been acquiring long-term government bonds, with a net issuance of approximately 14 trillion yuan expected by 2025, including 12 trillion yuan for bonds with maturities of 10 years or more [2]. - The ΔEVE ratio is a key regulatory metric that measures potential maximum losses banks may face under different interest rate shock scenarios, with some major state-owned banks approaching a ΔEVE of 15% [2][5]. - International experiences indicate that "risk prevention" does not equate to rigid adherence to regulatory thresholds, as seen in Japan and the U.S., where regulatory measures have been adjusted based on operational realities [5][10]. Group 2: International Comparisons - Japan has adjusted its ΔEVE thresholds for smaller banks, allowing a higher ratio of 20% compared to 15% for larger banks, reflecting the operational context of these institutions [5]. - The U.S. has relaxed its supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requirements for large banks to enhance their ability to provide liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market, indicating a flexible approach to regulatory measures [10]. - Unlike Japan and Europe, the U.S. has minimal regulatory oversight on banks' interest rate risk, allowing banks to set their own ΔEVE thresholds without a mandated "red line" [10]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Monetary Policy - Ensuring macroeconomic stability is fundamental for effective risk prevention, with a focus on flexible fiscal and monetary policies that can adapt to economic cycles [11]. - Current economic conditions in China show weak internal demand, necessitating fiscal expansion to stabilize the overall economic and financial landscape [12]. - The People's Bank of China has significant room for balance sheet expansion, with total assets at 48.2 trillion yuan, indicating potential for increased liquidity support for government bond issuance [19].