金荣中国：美商船被警告远离伊朗领海，金价扩大反弹维持震荡走高

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 9, with an opening price of $4983.69 per ounce, a peak of $5060.37, a low of $4965.16, and a closing price of $5058.90 [1]. Economic Indicators - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. consumer expectations regarding inflation and the job market improved slightly in January, with the median inflation expectation for the next year at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in December [3]. - The probability of finding a new job within three months increased to approximately 46%, while the perceived likelihood of job loss decreased [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was supported by signs of stability in the labor market, with policymakers indicating that recent rate cuts would support the labor market while keeping rates sufficiently high to exert downward pressure on inflation [3]. Geopolitical Developments - Following an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. advised vessels flying the American flag to avoid Iranian waters, highlighting the risks associated with maritime navigation in the region [4]. - The U.S. Department of Defense reported the interception of an oil tanker linked to Venezuela, indicating an expansion of efforts to combat illegal oil transport globally [5]. - Mexico has suspended oil shipments to Cuba to avoid potential retaliation from Washington, as it had become the largest oil supplier to Cuba following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with a daily close above key moving average support levels, although short-term indicators suggested potential for a pullback [9][10]. - The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy, balancing between long and short positions [11].