成交额超1亿元，国开债券ETF(159651)实现3连涨

Group 1 - The overall risk in the cross-year bond market is controllable, with a short-term warm sentiment expected to continue. The focus is on the yield curve flattening or becoming concave, particularly the 10-2 year spread narrowing and the 30-10 spread maintaining around 40 basis points [1] - Recent changes in the bond market include an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for long-term bonds, a notable technical improvement, and a stable decline in funding rates, although future space for decline is limited [1] - The 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds present a high cost-performance ratio, as their rebound has not fully absorbed the benefits of monetary easing, indicating clear potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - For medium and short-term bonds, the benefits of monetary easing have been fully realized, leading to limited downward space and insufficient odds for further declines. The long-term bonds are viewed with a neutral to optimistic stance, with moderate speculation on new bonds [2] - The 30-year government bonds are expected to mainly follow the recovery of 10-year bonds, with compression space in spreads but expected to remain above 40 basis points. Older 30-year bonds face liquidity issues and the challenge of "buying new and selling old" [2] - As of February 9, 2026, the National Development Bank bond ETF has seen a 0.01% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a current price of 107.05 yuan and a one-year cumulative increase of 1.11% [2] Group 3 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has experienced a significant growth of 45.973 million yuan over the past three months [3] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bank bond ETF this year is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02%, and a recovery period of 5 days [3] Group 4 - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - As of February 9, 2026, the tracking error for the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past three months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [5]