或迎最严重芯片荒！科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)标的指数昨日大涨超4%，近5日净流入超4300万元

Core Insights - The Tianhong Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF (589070) has seen a significant increase in trading activity, with a turnover of 13.99% and a transaction volume of 92.29 million yuan as of February 9, 2026, indicating a vibrant market engagement [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 654 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with a notable increase of 28 million shares over the past week [1] - Goldman Sachs has warned of a severe shortage in the global memory chip market, predicting significant supply gaps in DRAM, NAND, and HBM categories for 2026-2027, despite declining demand in smartphones and PCs [1][2] Product Highlights - The Tianhong Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF focuses on the core area of chip design, benefiting from supportive policies and emerging investment opportunities driven by AI and other sectors [1] - The ETF tracks an index comprising 50 listed companies in the chip design field, with a high concentration of constituent stocks and a maximum daily price fluctuation of 20% [1] - The ongoing growth in upstream inference demand and the continuous rise of domestic alternatives enhance the value of this sector [1] Market Events - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for DRAM supply shortages, now expecting a shortfall of 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, which is much higher than previous estimates [2] - The NAND market is also tightening, with expected shortages of 4.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, marking one of the largest shortages in the industry's history [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM has been revised upward by 8% and 9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reaching 54 billion USD and 75 billion USD [2] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Securities reports that major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to increase their capital expenditures by 48%-95% year-on-year by Q4 2025, with a significant portion directed towards CPU and GPU assets [3] - For 2026, these companies' median capital expenditure is projected to grow by 60%-97%, alongside a clear push for domestic alternatives, indicating strong and structural demand for AI chips favoring domestic design firms [3] - Cambricon, a leading domestic AI chip manufacturer, is expected to achieve revenues of 6-7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 411%-496%, signaling a phase of scaling up in the domestic AI chip design sector [3]