2026开年开门红藏隐忧？美联储博弈+存款搬家，6类核心资产走向已定

Group 1 - The global financial market has started 2026 with a strong performance, with A-shares rising over 3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a high of 49,000 points [1][3] - Gold prices have surged, with London gold reaching $5,042.11 per ounce and domestic gold prices exceeding 1,500 yuan per gram, reflecting both safe-haven and value appreciation attributes [1][3] - The "deposit migration" trend in China is driving liquidity, with approximately 75 trillion yuan of household time deposits maturing in 2026, significantly higher than market expectations [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell adding to market uncertainty [4][6] - The rise of "shadow banking" is amplifying liquidity risks in the global market, as funds flow into this sector seeking higher returns amid traditional bank credit contraction [6][9] - The outlook for six core assets is influenced by three main variables: uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, risks from shadow banking, and the structured nature of deposit migration [9][10] Group 3 - Gold is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, driven by a shift in the pricing anchor from interest-bearing assets to physical currency, despite short-term price volatility [9] - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to exhibit a "weak trend with high volatility" due to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy and the conflict between the White House and the Fed [9] - The domestic bond market is likely to benefit from low-risk fund inflows due to deposit migration, while the U.S. bond market faces increased yield volatility amid Fed policy uncertainties [9]