创新药强复苏！CRO二波行情已启动？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience a significant turning point in 2025, with the innovative drug sector emerging from an adjustment period to achieve a strong recovery, becoming the core growth engine of the pharmaceutical sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In January 2026, the CRO sector showed a clear net inflow of funds, indicating a strong technical reversal signal [1] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a total financing amount of 79.53 billion yuan in the healthcare primary market, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [7] - The capital allocation logic has shifted from "early and small investments" to "investing in clinical and certainty," with a significant increase in financing for later-stage projects [7] Group 2: Investment and Financing Trends - The innovative drug financing market began to recover in 2025, with capital concentrating on high-certainty clinical projects, establishing a solid funding foundation for the CRO industry [4] - The total transaction amount for innovative drug BD (business development) reached $135.7 billion in 2025, with upfront payments of $7 billion, marking a historical high [8] Group 3: Regulatory and Approval Efficiency - In 2025, the CDE accepted 1,878 IND applications, a year-on-year increase of 13.34%, with 1st category innovative drug IND applications accounting for over 70% [9] - The NMPA completed IND application approvals for 1,897 products in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.38%, with a high approval rate of 96.53% for 1st category innovative drugs [13] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The global regulatory shift and digital transformation of clinical execution models have expanded the market space for the CRO industry, enhancing the competitive barriers for leading companies [13][14] - Leading CRO companies benefit from years of technical accumulation and project experience, allowing them to convert technical capabilities into execution efficiency, thus gaining a significant advantage in project delivery [14] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The comprehensive recovery of the innovative drug industry in 2025 presents historic development opportunities for the CRO sector, with multiple favorable factors driving industry prosperity [15] - It is recommended to focus on leading clinical CRO companies with digital platforms, robust compliance systems, and scale advantages, as they are expected to benefit the most from the release of industry demand [15]