中间价创新低，该持汇过节吗

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese yuan has returned to an appreciation trend, with the USD/CNY midpoint reaching a new low since May 2023 at 6.9523, approaching the critical level of 6.95 [1][10]. - The appreciation of the yuan began to accelerate in December last year, with a monthly increase of approximately 900 pips, followed by an additional 500 pips in January [2]. - The yuan's appreciation characteristics can be summarized as "self-driven," where the yuan gains momentum when the US dollar index declines, and experiences limited adjustments when the index rises [4][6]. Group 2 - The USD/CNY midpoint has been on a downward trend for eight consecutive months since the peak of the trade war in April last year, returning to a trajectory that aligns with market appreciation rates [5]. - There is a consensus among enterprises to adjust their currency exchange strategies flexibly, moving away from fixed points to follow market trends [7]. - Potential risks before and after the Spring Festival include supply-demand imbalances due to pre-holiday settlement pressures, with the possibility of the USD/CNY rate dropping to the 6.9 level [8]. Group 3 - Key data releases, including January's non-farm payrolls and CPI, could catalyze market movements, especially with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday, which may increase volatility [8]. - The article notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, lasting nine days, could yield a carry return of 50 pips, leading to speculative trading that may amplify market fluctuations [8][10]. - The article concludes that the appreciation of the yuan may not be over before the Spring Festival, and that adjusting exchange rates at higher levels is a reasonable strategy [10].