Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-10 03:22Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart aims to achieve global sales of over 400 million units across all IP and product categories by 2025, with the "THE MONSTERS" category expected to exceed 100 million units [1] Group 1: 2025 Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing a typical "single super IP + category breakthrough" growth model, with revenue expected to expand nearly threefold year-on-year, driven primarily by the global popularity of Labubu and significant monetization efficiency from plush toys [1] - HSBC's analyst Lina Yan predicts that while the hyper-growth from Labubu will fade, the platform's capabilities will persist, marking 2026 as a year for "re-establishing the baseline" [1] - UBS believes that the data alleviates market concerns regarding reliance on a single hit product, with new IP Twinkle showing strong initial performance in early 2026, providing a window for continued growth [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has lowered its revenue and profit growth forecasts for 2026, citing a decline in member repurchase intensity and growth rate, while emphasizing that valuations have already accounted for IP lifecycle risks [2] - The company’s revenue growth in 2025 is expected to be significantly driven by repeat member purchases, with ARPU from repeat members contributing nearly half of the revenue growth in mainland China [3] Group 3: 2026 Growth Framework - HSBC anticipates that the normalization of ARPU for repeat members will shift growth from explosive to a more standard retail expansion trajectory, leading to a reduction in revenue growth forecast from 30.6% to 23.7% for 2026 [4] - The expected revenue growth for 2026 in mainland China is approximately 13.0%, while overseas growth is projected at around 35.7%, with a focus on expanding retail POS locations [4] Group 4: Execution Risks and Market Dynamics - The risks identified are primarily execution-related, including supply chain issues, price inflation from scalpers, and competition, which could impact the brand and sales [5] - HSBC notes that the market has already begun to price in the lifecycle risks associated with Labubu, with a significant drop in forward PE ratios despite a rise in forward EPS [6] Group 5: New IP and Market Validation - The success of new IPs like Twinkle and their interaction with overseas markets will be critical for sustaining growth post-Labubu, with initial sales figures indicating strong performance [6][7] - Both HSBC and UBS view upcoming quarterly sales data as crucial for validating market performance, particularly in the U.S., and emphasize the importance of sustainable membership management and product expansion [7]