日元再破160关口在即？高盛预警日本大选后财政扩张将加剧日元抛压

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the outcome of the Japanese election may strengthen the upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate due to expectations of increased fiscal spending by the Japanese government [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that a more expansionary fiscal stance in Japan is likely to weigh on the yen rather than support it, as increased government spending could amplify Japan's structural yield disadvantage and reinforce capital outflows, especially under a loose monetary policy [1] - The implied volatility of USD/JPY is expected to rise as investors refocus on the interplay between fiscal policy, yield differentials, and political risks, with the potential for the exchange rate to move towards and possibly break the 160 level [1] Group 2 - The risk balance remains tilted towards further depreciation of the yen, as U.S. Treasury yields still offer a significant premium over domestic Japanese assets, leading to an expectation of increased volatility [2] - The market may continue to test higher levels while remaining vigilant about potential official interventions, despite the likelihood that such interventions will not fully halt the yen's weakness [2]