Juno markets：美联储新主席提名落地，政策连续性如何保障？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a notable divergence among Federal Open Market Committee members regarding the interest rate path for 2026, with 7 officials opposing rate cuts this year and 8 supporting at least two cuts, while the median forecast suggests only one cut [1] - The policy guidance from the Fed contrasts with futures market expectations, where traders are betting on two rate cuts in 2026, indicating a lack of consensus on the U.S. economic outlook and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The White House has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair, aiming to balance central bank independence with White House policy demands [3] - The release of the January non-farm payroll report has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, with market expectations of approximately 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.4% [3] - Bloomberg Economics warns that actual job data may be significantly weaker, potentially around 15,000, due to adjustments in statistical methods, which could lead to a reassessment of the Fed's policy timing [3] - Key variables affecting market expectations include labor market conditions, core inflation trends, and the communication style of the new chair [3]