Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-10 04:06Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand dynamics across multiple sub-sectors by 2026, with a clearer recovery trend in CPI, indicating sustained new consumption but with internal rotations. Traditional consumption sectors benefiting from CPI recovery are anticipated to experience bottom improvements, particularly in the mass consumer goods and liquor sectors [1] Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - The CPI turned positive for the first time in October 2025, showing a month-on-month improvement with November and December CPI at +0.7% and +0.8% respectively, while food CPI was +0.2% and +1.1% [1] - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices have seen significant increases, with November and December fresh vegetable CPI at +14.5% and +18.2%, and fresh fruit CPI at +0.7% and +4.4% [1] - The decline in prices for grains, edible oils, and livestock has narrowed, with November and December grain CPI at -0.4% and -0.3%, edible oil CPI at -1.2% and -1.0%, and livestock CPI at -6.6% and -6.1% [1] Group 2: Liquor Sector Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of recovery, with prices for whole boxes and individual bottles at 1710 and 1660 yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 30 yuan and 10 yuan since January 31 [2] - The demand for liquor is strong due to festive consumption, and the recent price drop has activated potential consumers, leading to improved sales [2] - Moutai's supply chain adjustments and channel reforms are effectively supporting the price stability of its products [2] Group 3: Dairy Industry Developments - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.04 yuan/kg as of January 29, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% but a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a strong bottoming signal [3] - The dairy price is expected to enter an upward trend in 2026 due to supply-side adjustments and improved demand driven by demographic policies and product upgrades [3] Group 4: Consumer Goods Price Movements - The frozen food sector is nearing a competitive bottom, with potential demand recovery in 2026 expected to drive fundamental improvements [4] - Leading company Anjijia has begun to recover some promotional policies, which may lead to profit recovery [4] - Three squirrels have raised the ex-factory prices of certain nut gift products, which may alleviate pressures from rising raw material and transportation costs, improving profitability [4]