德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家熊奕：中企出海将是未来五年重要趋势

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for Greater China, Xiong Yi, identifies 2025 as a pivotal year for China's economy and market, reflecting changes in data, market sentiment, capital performance, and international perception [1] - The performance of Hong Kong and A-shares indicates a resurgence of "China's competitiveness" on the international stage, marking this turning point [1] Economic Structure and Opportunities - Xiong Yi analyzes China's long-term structural opportunities through three dimensions: supply, demand, and monetary policy [1] - China's innovation capability and international trade competitiveness have been reassessed over the past year, becoming core drivers of economic growth [1] - The country boasts a leading reserve of engineering talent, with nearly half of top AI researchers having graduated from Chinese universities, supported by a vast market, efficient supply chains, and a competitive business ecosystem [1] - Breakthroughs in cutting-edge fields like AI have exceeded expectations, with significant industry investment reflecting a return of "animal spirits" [1] - Challenges faced by some innovative companies regarding profitability are seen as temporary issues arising from supply surges and competitive disorder [1] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote market equilibrium through market-driven selection rather than suppressing competition, allowing innovative entities to receive reasonable returns [1] Dual-Engine Growth - Domestic and external demand will form a "dual-engine" for growth [2] - In terms of domestic demand, the focus of consumption is shifting towards services, with sectors like entertainment, leisure, and healthcare still below the global average in GDP contribution, indicating significant potential for policy breakthroughs [2] - On the external front, China's economy is transitioning from "export" to a new "going global" model, with a decreasing GDP share from exports but an increasing proportion of overseas income for listed companies [2] - Companies are achieving deep internationalization through overseas factories and localized operations, suggesting a broad space for Chinese enterprises to expand globally in the next five years [2] Currency and Investment Outlook - Xiong Yi predicts that by the second half of 2025, both the RMB interest rates and exchange rates will stabilize and recover [2] - The internationalization of the RMB is entering a new phase, supported by stable domestic prices that reinforce the currency's purchasing power [2] - If interest rates rebound moderately and the RMB shows a mild appreciation expectation, the attractiveness of RMB assets will significantly increase [2] - Historically, RMB internationalization has focused on trade settlement, but future developments may enhance its investment attributes, becoming a key driver for the next stage of RMB internationalization [2]