美银报告：特朗普支持率与美元走势罕见 “同频”，“懂王” 支持率回升前市场难获支撑

Core Viewpoint - The current performance of the US dollar and the pressure in the US financial markets are significantly correlated with President Trump's approval ratings, which have both declined by approximately 10% since he took office [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Theoretically, a weaker dollar should boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, enhancing economic vitality. However, Trump's approval ratings and the dollar index have shown a "highly positive correlation" during his presidency [3]. - The recent market logic indicates a reassessment of the "Trump policy premium," with expectations of aggressive tax cuts and fiscal expansion post-2024 elections driving a strong dollar and elevated stock values [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a painful adjustment phase characterized by "peak positions and peak policies," with political support being a direct measure of market confidence [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Capital Flows - Investors are closely monitoring how the Trump administration balances strong dollar policies with tariffs and industrial revitalization plans, making political approval ratings a key indicator of market sentiment [5]. - A shift in market sentiment is occurring, with a transition towards "longing the real economy and shorting Wall Street assets," indicating that financial market confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative may rebound only when policy directions effectively enhance public support [5]. - Recent fund flows show significant movements, with $87.2 billion flowing into one-year market funds, $34.6 billion into equity funds, and $23 billion into bond funds, while gold and cryptocurrency funds experienced outflows [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, technology funds saw inflows of $6 billion, while energy funds attracted $4.2 billion, contrasting with significant outflows from utility funds [8]. - The report highlights key technical support levels for "bubble assets," including technology ETFs at $133, Bitcoin at $58,000, and gold at $4,550 per ounce, suggesting potential stabilization points for these assets [6].