DLSM外汇平台：美联储立场与AI投资力度，能否支撑牛市延续？

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is under scrutiny for its ability to maintain double-digit percentage gains in 2026 after achieving this for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025, with corporate earnings growth, Federal Reserve policy, and capital expenditure in artificial intelligence being the three core variables influencing market direction [1][3] - Historical data shows that since 1950, there have been seven instances of the U.S. stock market entering its fourth year of a bull market, with six of those years resulting in positive returns and an average gain of 12.8%, providing some support for optimistic expectations, although current market conditions differ significantly from past cycles [3] - The consensus expectation for 2026 is that the earnings growth rate of S&P 500 constituents will remain high but will slow compared to the previous two years, with a target year-end index level of 7400 points, implying a potential gain of about 7%, which is below historical averages [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy path is another critical variable, with expectations of two potential interest rate cuts in 2026, influenced by inflation and employment data, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who advocates for a combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [3] - Investment in the artificial intelligence sector is on the rise, with major tech companies increasing their capital expenditure plans, such as Oracle raising its annual budget from $35 billion to $50 billion, a 42% increase, which supports industries like semiconductors and cloud computing [4] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is at a historically high level, indicating limited market resilience to negative shocks, with geopolitical risks and economic data fluctuations potentially triggering short-term adjustments [4] Group 3 - Emerging market stocks are trading at a forward P/E ratio that is approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks, which is below the long-term average, suggesting potential valuation recovery in the context of a weaker dollar and global capital reallocation [4] - The outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 is expected to be characterized by range-bound trading and structural differentiation rather than the broad-based rallies seen in the previous two years, necessitating flexibility in sector selection and risk exposure management to navigate increased market volatility [4]