达利欧最新深度访谈：美国处于秩序崩溃与内战边缘，黄金是唯一避险方舟

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the U.S. is in the "fifth stage" of the empire cycle, nearing a collapse of order and conflict due to extreme political polarization and debt imbalance [2][10]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - Dalio categorizes the U.S. in the fifth stage of a six-stage cycle, indicating a precarious situation just before a potential collapse [4][28]. - He highlights significant wealth disparity and political polarization as key characteristics of this stage, with about 25% of the population willing to engage in violence for their political faction [4][10]. Group 2: Debt and Monetary Policy - The core issue in the sixth stage is the imbalance between the supply and demand for reserve currency, leading to rising long-term interest rates and currency devaluation [5][30]. - Dalio explains that excessive money supply without corresponding demand will result in a depreciation of currency relative to non-sovereign assets like gold [6][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Dalio emphasizes gold as a crucial asset, suggesting it should constitute 5% to 15% of an investment portfolio, as it is the only asset not tied to someone else's debt [8][50]. - He distinguishes between "wealth" and "money," asserting that liquidity is vital during crises, and gold serves as a hedge against currency devaluation [8][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Individuals - Dalio advises individuals to diversify their investments, save, and choose stable living locations to mitigate potential societal upheaval [9][16]. - He stresses the need for strong leadership and political wisdom to address the debt crisis and societal divisions, which he views as a significant challenge [9][10].