金荣中国：白银亚盘震荡回落微跌，关注回落支撑位多单布局

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices have rebounded to $89.20 per ounce, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed January non-farm payroll report, consumer price index, retail sales, and initial jobless claims [1] - The market anticipates only 70,000 new jobs added in January, aligning with White House economic advisor Hassett's view of a slowdown in job growth in the coming months [1] - Weak economic data could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan's recent comments suggest that the impact of tariffs is mild, primarily borne by foreign entities rather than American citizens [3] - Despite conflicting research indicating an average tariff burden of $1,400 per household, Milan asserts that tariffs have not triggered significant inflation, with core inflation nearing target levels [3] - The Fed's internal view is that tariffs have led to one-time price increases rather than sustained inflation, which may provide more room for rate cuts under the leadership of Walsh later this year [3] Inflation and Market Expectations - The 5-year and 10-year TIPS breakeven rates are reported at 2.521% and 2.337%, respectively, indicating market expectations of an average annual inflation rate of about 2.3% over the next decade [3] - If the upcoming CPI data falls below expectations, it could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, with a 17.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March [3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, while Ukraine claims to have shot down numerous Russian drones, highlighting the ongoing conflict [3] - The situation in the Middle East, with U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, adds to global uncertainty, prompting investors to turn to gold [4] Silver Market Trends - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - Technical analysis indicates a support level around $83.15, with a bullish MACD pattern suggesting a potential upward trend [7] - Suggested trading strategies include a long position near $77.91 with a stop loss at $77.30 and a take profit target in the $83.69 to $85.90 range [7]