美欧制裁与特朗普施压见效，俄油气收入遭遇“滑铁卢”

Core Insights - The financial support from oil and gas exports for Russia is diminishing as the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, leading to a significant drop in cash flow to levels not seen in years [1] - New punitive measures from the US and EU, along with pressure on India to reduce Russian oil imports, are contributing to this decline [1][2] - The Russian government is resorting to borrowing and increasing taxes to maintain fiscal stability, which exacerbates the pressures of a wartime economy facing slow growth and stubborn inflation [1][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - In January, tax revenue from the oil and gas sector fell to 393 billion rubles ($5.1 billion), down from 587 billion rubles ($7.6 billion) in December and 1.12 trillion rubles ($14.5 billion) in January 2025, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Economic growth in Russia has stagnated, with GDP growth of only 0.1% in Q3 last year and forecasts for this year ranging from 0.6% to 0.9%, significantly lower than the over 4% growth expected in 2023 and 2024 [5] - The Kremlin has increased the value-added tax from 20% to 22% and raised taxes on car imports, cigarettes, and alcohol to fill the gap left by declining oil and gas revenues [5] Group 2: Sanctions and Market Dynamics - The US government has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which pose significant risks for any entities purchasing or transporting their oil [2] - The EU has banned the use of Russian crude oil for fuel since January 21, further restricting Russia's ability to refine and export oil to Europe [2] - Buyers are demanding larger discounts on Russian oil to mitigate risks associated with US sanctions, with discounts expanding to approximately $25 per barrel in December [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - The US has pressured India to halt imports of Russian oil, resulting in a decrease in Russian oil shipments to India from 2 million barrels per day in October to 1.3 million barrels per day in December [3] - The number of sanctioned shadow tankers has increased to 640, as allies of Ukraine target individual vessels to prevent the purchase of Russian oil [3] - The Kremlin is closely monitoring India's strategic decisions regarding energy diversification, indicating the importance of maintaining strong ties with New Delhi [3]