英债交易员头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”——斯塔默还能撑多久？

Core Viewpoint - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing the most severe political crisis since taking office, triggered by the late American financier Jeffrey Epstein, despite having no direct connection to the scandal [1][2]. Group 1: Political Crisis and Market Impact - The political turmoil has led to a significant rise in UK government bond yields, with betting markets predicting a high likelihood of Starmer's resignation by the end of June [1][2]. - The Labour Party's support has dropped to 19%, with Starmer's approval ratings falling below those of former Prime Minister Liz Truss during her crisis [2][3]. - The internal Labour Party elections typically take about two months, and there is currently no clear frontrunner, which adds to market uncertainty [1][2]. Group 2: Comparison with Previous Political Events - The current market response differs fundamentally from the 2022 Truss crisis, where a budget led to soaring bond yields and a plummeting pound; recent fluctuations have not reached such extremes [3][5]. - Starmer's closed-door meeting with Labour MPs indicated he performed well, suggesting he may not be forced to resign imminently [3]. Group 3: Ongoing Risks and Uncertainties - The potential for a more left-leaning successor could lead to fiscal policies that raise market concerns, prolonging uncertainty for bond traders [5]. - The stability of the UK bond market remains fragile, with the upcoming local elections in May and the ongoing Epstein scandal likely to maintain political uncertainty [5].