贝森特首度发声：美联储缩表按兵不动？金价能否重回巅峰？

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant regarding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet adjustments provide a clearer and more cautious policy expectation framework for the market, especially in the context of a hawkish stance from the newly nominated Fed chair [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Besant emphasized that even with a hawkish Fed chair, there will not be an immediate action to reduce the balance sheet, indicating a potential one-year evaluation period before any decisions are made [3]. - This statement serves as a signal to the market that aggressive balance sheet reduction should not be expected in the short term, which helps manage expectations and reduces the likelihood of sudden liquidity tightening [3][5]. - The concept of a "sufficient reserves mechanism" is crucial for understanding the Fed's current operational logic, as rapid balance sheet compression could lead to short-term interest rate volatility [5]. Group 2: Impact on Gold Prices - In the context of a potentially slower pace of balance sheet reduction, the environment for gold prices may not deteriorate significantly, as the upward pressure on real interest rates is limited [7]. - However, this does not guarantee that gold prices will return to previous highs, as the market still needs to consider inflation, economic data, and safe-haven demand [7]. - Overall, Besant's remarks are more about stabilizing expectations rather than signaling a fundamental shift in policy direction, suggesting that investors should focus on understanding monetary policy logic rather than betting on extreme scenarios [7].