Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-10 06:59Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) expects global sales of over 400 million units for its entire IP product line by 2025, with THE MONSTERS product line projected to exceed 100 million units in sales [1] Group 1: Sales Projections - Pop Mart has not disclosed the specific breakdown of the 400 million units, but Macquarie believes that the increasing proportion of plush toys (which typically have a higher price point than trendy figurines) and the overseas market (which has higher pricing than mainland China) will drive an increase in average selling prices by 2025 [1] - Macquarie maintains a "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 470 HKD [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts - The current revenue forecast implies an average selling price of approximately 96 RMB per unit. Based on Macquarie's estimated revenue of 38.4 billion RMB divided by 400 million units, this suggests a year-on-year revenue growth of 148% for Q4 2025 [1] - If the average selling price increases to 100 RMB per unit, total annual revenue could reach 40 billion RMB, with an estimated Q4 revenue of 13.6 billion RMB (a year-on-year increase of 180% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2%) [1] Group 3: IP Value Contribution - Macquarie believes that the IP value contribution from THE MONSTERS may be higher, as the plush toys and MEGA series have a higher proportion in sales (both having average prices above trendy figurines), and their exposure overseas is better than in mainland China, leading to an expected average selling price above the group average [1] - The company is anticipated to manage its IP portfolio more cautiously by 2026 [1]