TMGM外汇：避险降温遇上降息预期，国际金价持续震荡

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with prices recently retreating below the psychological level of $5,000, reflecting complex market sentiments influenced by various factors [1]. Group 1: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The outcome of Japan's early elections has reduced political uncertainty, providing some stability to the market [3]. - Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conclusion of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear plans, have alleviated concerns over geopolitical conflicts, enhancing investor risk appetite and applying pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, with the first cut potentially occurring in June [3]. - This anticipation has kept the U.S. dollar near its lowest point in over a week, and discussions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have added uncertainty to the monetary policy outlook [3]. - A weaker dollar typically benefits gold priced in dollars, partially offsetting the pressure from improved risk sentiment [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices faced resistance near recent swing highs, leading to a cautious stance among bulls [4]. - The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive but has contracted, indicating a weakening upward momentum [4]. - The relative strength index (RSI) is at a neutral level of 55, suggesting a balanced market [4]. - A rising trend line starting from $4,397.52 provides support near $4,819.19; maintaining this support could lead to a continuation of the rebound, while a close below it may open up deeper retracement towards $4,397.52 [4]. Group 4: Demand Factors - The People's Bank of China has continued its gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month, reflecting stable demand for gold amid global economic uncertainties [4]. - Traders are currently adopting a cautious approach, refraining from making aggressive directional bets ahead of significant economic data releases [4]. - Key U.S. economic data to watch this week includes monthly retail sales, non-farm payroll reports, and consumer inflation data, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy direction and impact on both the dollar and gold prices [4].