财富观 | 节前揽储大战升级，资金仍偏爱低风险

Core Viewpoint - The competition among banks for deposits is intensifying as they prepare for the expected influx of funds from maturing fixed-term deposits in 2026, with a focus on retaining these funds within the banking system rather than allowing them to flow into higher-risk assets like the stock market [3][6][7]. Group 1: Deposit Competition - As the Chinese New Year approaches, banks are ramping up their deposit acquisition strategies, with small and medium-sized banks raising interest rates on specific deposit products, while large banks are offering incentives like points and cash rewards [3][4]. - Over 10 small and medium-sized banks have raised deposit rates since the beginning of 2026, with some rural commercial banks offering rates close to 2% for three-year deposits [4]. - Large banks are not directly increasing rates but are enhancing their deposit acquisition efforts through rewards programs, such as cash rebates for new deposits and points for gift exchanges [5]. Group 2: Predictions for 2026 - The total amount of fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026 is projected to be around 75 trillion yuan, with approximately 67 trillion yuan of that being one-year or longer deposits [6][7]. - Despite the significant amount of maturing deposits, industry experts believe that most of these funds will remain within the banking system, primarily flowing into low-risk assets like bank wealth management products and money market funds [6][7][12]. Group 3: Risk Preferences and Asset Allocation - Current low-risk preferences among residents indicate that many will likely continue to choose fixed deposits and low-risk investments, rather than reallocating funds to higher-risk assets [10][12]. - Historical data suggests that during periods of low interest rates, residents tend to increase their holdings in cash, deposits, and insurance, while reducing investments in stocks and high-risk funds [9][10]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to favor low-risk products, with wealth management and money market funds being the primary beneficiaries of this shift [12][13].