连连国际1月跨境商家信心指数报告：三大指数均呈上涨态势，新年跨境市场整体回暖

Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for January 2026 indicates an overall recovery in merchant confidence at the start of the new year, reflecting a stable market opening despite significant behavioral divergence among merchants regarding inventory, recruitment strategies, and category selection [1][2]. Group 1: Confidence Index - The total merchant confidence index for January 2026 is 116, representing a 5% month-on-month increase; the current index is 93, up 7%; and the expected index is 139, which has increased by 2% [2][4]. - All three main indices show an upward trend, indicating a robust recovery in the cross-border market and stable seller confidence [2]. Group 2: Decision Divergence - In terms of recruitment, 80% of merchants are either pausing or slightly increasing hiring, reflecting a conservative outlook and a focus on maintaining current team sizes to avoid risks associated with blind expansion [5]. - Only 13% of merchants are actively expanding their workforce, indicating that genuine expansion motivation remains limited and is often tied to structural opportunities [5]. - For inventory decisions, 61% of merchants are increasing stock levels, suggesting a positive short-term demand outlook, while 23% are keeping inventory levels stable, and only 16% are reducing stock [6]. Group 3: Category Confidence Index - The confidence index for the Home & Garden category reached 115, a 13% increase, driven by sustained demand in the outdoor furniture and smart home appliance markets [9]. - The Fashion & Apparel category saw its confidence index rise to 111, a 3% increase, supported by fast fashion brands leveraging agile supply chains and social media marketing [9]. - The Electronics & Gadgets category's confidence index is 122, with a slight 1% increase, primarily fueled by innovations in AIoT devices and 3C accessories [9]. Group 4: Sales Growth Trends - 30.27% of merchants reported a sales growth of 5%-10%, a decrease of 4.75% month-on-month, indicating a contraction trend among mid-to-low growth merchants [10]. - 18.07% of merchants experienced negative growth, an increase of 4.50%, suggesting some merchants face post-peak pressure due to supply chain delays or inventory management issues [10]. - Conversely, 8.40% of merchants reported a growth of 15%-20%, an increase of 1.31%, indicating that a small segment of merchants with strong operational resilience continues to thrive [10].