2025年重整芳烃供需双降、价格下滑

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Shandong reformed aromatics market is expected to experience a "dual decline" in supply and demand, with an overall oversupply situation persisting, leading to a downward trend in prices for reformed aromatics, which may remain weak in 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The oversupply situation is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, as gasoline consumption peaks and the demand for raw materials in the market declines. The capacity utilization rate for reformed aromatics is projected to be 31.85%, down 8.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of 2.4841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [2] - The demand for reformed aromatics is anticipated to continue declining in 2025, with a projected demand of 2.45 million tons, representing a nearly 25% year-on-year decrease. This decline is attributed to the strong substitutability of the raw materials and a decrease in gasoline production from independent refineries in Shandong [2] Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The demand for reformed aromatics aligns closely with gasoline consumption patterns, which have shown weakened seasonal characteristics in recent years. Traditional peak seasons around the Spring Festival and from May to October have not resulted in significant price movements for reformed aromatics [3] Price Trends and Seasonal Index - The price of reformed aromatics is expected to fluctuate in five distinct phases throughout 2025: 1. January to February: Prices are expected to rise due to pre-holiday stocking and stable demand [6] 2. March to May: Prices are projected to decline as gasoline consumption falls short of expectations, leading to a weak demand for raw materials [6] 3. June: Prices may rise due to fluctuations in international oil prices, although demand remains generally weak [6] 4. July to October: Prices are expected to decline, with weak gasoline demand and a lack of traditional peak season characteristics [7] 5. November to December: Prices may stabilize with overall steady demand, leading to a slight upward trend [7] Future Market Predictions - In 2026, no new production facilities for reformed aromatics are planned, leading to limited fluctuations in supply. The overall refining capacity in China may decline year-on-year, with a projected decrease in gasoline output, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. Consequently, the demand for reformed aromatics is expected to continue its downward trend, with prices likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation [9]