欧央行经济学家：关税冲击拖累通胀，降息有望抵消负面影响

Core Insights - The research indicates that the U.S. tariff policy is negatively impacting economic growth and inflation levels in the Eurozone [1][2] - The demand reduction effect caused by tariffs outweighs the inflationary pressure on supply chains, leading to downward pressure on overall price levels [1][2] - The study suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) could use interest rate cuts to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs on sensitive industries [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. maintains a 15% base tariff on EU goods, leading to a significant decline in Eurozone exports to the U.S., which fell by approximately 6.5% year-on-year in the last three months [2] - The research estimates that a 1% decline in Eurozone exports to the U.S. due to tariffs could result in a cumulative 0.1% decrease in the consumer price index after about 18 months [1][2] Group 2: Sensitive Industries - Key industries affected by U.S. tariffs include machinery, automotive, and chemicals, which are also highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3] - Approximately 60% of the industries analyzed are sensitive to interest rate adjustments, accounting for 50% of the Eurozone's total industrial output and nearly half of the total exports to the U.S. [3]