春节AI大战只是表现？摩根大通：token消耗量将进入高速增长期，五年或增长370倍！

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley highlights that the intense competition among major tech giants during the Spring Festival is merely a surface phenomenon, with deeper structural changes in consumer information acquisition and content consumption driving a long-term surge in Token consumption [1] Group 1: AI Application Strategies - Major tech companies are adopting distinct strategies during the Spring Festival, focusing on capturing user habits rather than just traffic [2] - Tencent is implementing a "growth-first" strategy with a 1 billion RMB red envelope campaign to quickly increase the installation and activation of its AI features [2] - Alibaba's approach involves a 3 billion RMB "Spring Festival Treat Plan" aimed at integrating various services to foster AI-driven transaction habits, thereby improving conversion efficiency [2][3] - Baidu is investing approximately 500 million RMB in a combined strategy of "AI assistant + search distribution" to embed AI into more intent-driven search conversations [3] Group 2: Token Consumption Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts that China's AI inference Token consumption will surge from approximately 10 trillion in 2025 to about 3,900 trillion by 2030, marking a growth of around 370 times over five years [4] - This explosive growth is driven by increased penetration of AI in consumer and enterprise workloads, as well as the expansion of application scenarios from simple conversational AI to complex intelligent agents and multimodal outputs [4] - The structure of inference demand is expected to change significantly, with the proportion of conversational AI in total consumption decreasing from nearly half in 2025 to single digits by 2030, while "knowledge worker AI agents" and "multimodal AI" will gain prominence [4]