市场抢跑“降息行情”：零售销售数据公布前，美债收益率持续走低

Group 1 - US Treasury bonds are expected to rise for the second consecutive day, with economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches potentially reinforcing the case for further rate cuts [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.18%, nearing its lowest level since mid-January, while the 2-year yield dropped by 1 basis point, indicating a "bull-flattening" trend [1] - The market currently estimates a 25% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, compared to a previous expectation of two cuts [1] Group 2 - Economists predict that US retail sales growth in December will slow from 0.6% to 0.4%, while the employment cost index for the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable at 0.8% [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, delayed due to a government shutdown, is highly anticipated and will be released on Wednesday [1] - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, indicated that US employment data may decline in the coming months [4] Group 3 - The Cleveland Fed President and the Dallas Fed President, both considered hawkish, will participate in interest rate policy voting and are scheduled to speak on Tuesday [4] - The US Treasury will issue $58 billion in three-year new bonds this week, along with new 10-year and 30-year bonds [4] - Market expectations suggest that policymakers will keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, maintaining the range between 3.5% and 3.75% [4]