制造业需求领跑 2025年全国社会物流总额超368万亿元

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is projected to see significant growth by 2025, with a total social logistics volume of 368.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 1: Logistics Volume Breakdown - Agricultural product logistics is expected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Industrial product logistics will account for 324.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, contributing 82% to the overall logistics growth [4] - Import logistics is projected at 18.5 trillion yuan, with a modest growth of 0.5% [1] - Recyclable resources logistics is anticipated to grow by 13.2%, indicating a strong demand for low-carbon and green products [4] - Logistics for units and residential goods is expected to reach 14.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 2: Industrial Growth Drivers - The demand for logistics in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors is becoming a core growth driver, with industrial robot logistics expected to grow by 28% and new energy vehicle logistics by 25.1% [4] - The logistics demand for green products such as wind turbines, lithium carbonate, and carbon fiber is projected to grow by over 40% [4] - The development of new industries is leading to higher product value and more refined transportation requirements, pushing logistics companies to enhance their service capabilities [4] Group 3: Import and Cost Trends - Import logistics is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and a peak monthly growth of 8.5% in December [5] - The total logistics cost for 2025 is projected at 19.5 trillion yuan, with the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio decreasing to 13.9%, down by 0.2 percentage points [5] - Transportation costs remain stable at 7.6% of GDP, while storage costs have decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% of GDP [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The logistics sector is encouraged to implement the "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Logistics Costs" to enhance infrastructure and improve service quality [6] - There is a focus on innovation to drive efficiency and reduce costs, promoting high-quality development in logistics and macroeconomic coordination [6]