日本政坛巨变：股市是天堂、汇市是地狱、债市是炼狱

Group 1 - The Japanese "lightning election" concluded in just 16 days, marking an unprecedented efficiency and result since World War II [1][2] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Sanae Takaichi secured 310 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, achieving a two-thirds majority, while opposition parties collectively obtained only 109 seats [3] - This strong majority allows the LDP to push through policies with minimal resistance, enhancing policy certainty in Japan [4][5] Group 2 - The market's response reflects a pricing in of policy certainty, with a stable government increasing the likelihood of economic stimulus plans being realized [7] - Takaichi's economic strategy, which builds on Abenomics, includes a massive fiscal stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), aggressive tax cuts, and record fiscal budgets [8][9] Group 3 - The fiscal measures are expected to raise inflation expectations and interest rates, leading to a decline in bond prices, while stimulating the stock market [11] - The core logic of the "Takaichi trade" is to buy Japanese stocks, sell yen, and short Japanese bonds, as global funds embrace benefiting assets while discarding those adversely affected [11] Group 4 - The anticipated fiscal expansion is projected to increase Japan's GDP growth by 0.5% in 2026, which could improve corporate earnings [13] - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks has surged, with net purchases reaching 1.2 trillion yen in January 2026, and further increasing to 280 billion yen on the first trading day post-election [14] Group 5 - The depreciation of the yen is seen as a boon for Japanese companies, enhancing the competitiveness of exports and increasing the value of overseas earnings [16][17] - Japan's export value rose by 6.7% year-on-year in December 2025, with significant growth in automotive and semiconductor equipment exports [17] Group 6 - The Japanese bond market faces pressure due to rising fiscal premiums and a significant increase in government debt issuance, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 237% [37] - The Bank of Japan's anticipated normalization of monetary policy, including gradual interest rate hikes, is expected to further increase bond yields [40][41] Group 7 - The market anticipates that if the yen approaches certain thresholds, the Japanese government may intervene to stabilize the currency [32][33] - The ongoing fiscal expansion and monetary policy adjustments create a challenging environment for the bond market, with expectations of rising yields and increased debt supply [45]