“持股过节”成机构共识，春节“红包”行情可期

Core Viewpoint - The prevailing sentiment among institutions is to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, supported by historical data and current market conditions [2][6][9]. Group 1: Historical Data and Market Trends - Historical analysis shows a clear "pre-festival weakness and post-festival strength" pattern in the A-share market, with an average return of -2.20% in the week before the festival and a recovery to 0.53% in the last week before the festival [3]. - The first week after the festival typically sees an average return of 2.03%, with an 80% probability of an increase over the past decade [3]. - Small-cap and growth stocks exhibit a more pronounced reversal effect around the festival, making them attractive for pre-festival allocation [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a "stable before the festival, aggressive after" strategy, focusing on balanced and defensive positions before the festival and shifting to technology growth and industry trends afterward [9][10]. - The "barbell strategy" is commonly suggested, combining defensive high-dividend stocks with aggressive growth sectors like technology [11]. - A significant portion of private equity firms (62.16%) prefers to hold heavy or full positions during the festival, indicating confidence in structural opportunities despite market fluctuations [6]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Recommendations - Key sectors expected to perform well post-festival include technology, AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like banking and food and beverage show weaker reversal effects [4][12]. - Institutions emphasize the importance of holding quality assets and suggest a focus on sectors with strong performance potential, such as resource and traditional manufacturing [12]. - Defensive positions in consumer sectors and high-dividend stocks are recommended to balance the portfolio against current market conditions [12].